Predictions for the 2012 Italian Grand Prix – Monza

Posted: September 7, 2012 by Valentin Khorounzhiy in 2012 Predictions
Tags:

Hello there. If you looked at the column that says “Posted… by” up there under the title of this post, you probably figured this isn’t Matt or Steve posting this. But, since I now happen to have privileges that allow me to write articles for this wondefully-managed (thanks, Matt) blog, and since Matt is now full-on in sleep mode, I figured I’m gonna write up the usual predictions post since this is the kinda thing that we do here.

Being honest here – I don’t remember how last year’s race went, so I’m sure Matt or Steve could edit that in for me. However, the classification leads me to believe that Vettel won it, which means it was probably no different to 75% of the races last year in everything but the first corner. So, in my predictions, I will have to draw any semblance of reason I decide to put in them from Spa and FP1 which just unfolded before my eyes. And, let me tell you, that will be no easy task.

Since Spa happened less than a week ago and is in many ways similar to Monza, you’d expect the previous race to serve as a benchmark for this one. As such, you can easily observe that, say, Sauber is obviously on the rise, their summer break upgrades (?) having worked out quite nicely for them even if all of that easily amounted to nothing in the actual race due to factors we’ve talked enough about. McLaren, meanwhile, is looking lovely but mostly that should be attributed to Jenson Button who produced a stunning race and could be on the verge of repeating the fantastic second half of the season that he had last year. Meanwhile, both Red Bull and, to a certain extent, Ferrari looked fairly stagnant despite Vettel’s podium. The Enstone team’s weekend seemed to be undone by car problems, uncertainty over the DDRS and… other things, while Mercedes just looked appaling in every way.

Going by that alone, my original prediction for qualifying was Vettel – Button – Hamilton, with the podium for the race being Vettel – Button – Alonso. However, after FP1, it seems that I will have to do a Romney and change my stance on things in record short time.

Qualifying

So, I’m not sure when that happened, but Mercedes are suddenly looking good again, possibly due to their drivers’ morale boosted by the rumours of being replaced by Lewis Hamilton. As such, I’d expect both of them to get the car firmly into Q3 but with the current tactical standards in the house of Brawn that’s about as far as they’ll go. Hamilton, who I originally expected to place third in qualifying, doesn’t look like he’ll be able to do it to me anymore, because during this week he’s been put under a lot of stress and you know how that works out, right? Both Red Bulls, meanwhile, look pretty bad and with Vettel saying that nobody there knows where the qualifying pace is, you know even his abilities probably won’t be enough to put that car on front row. Lotus doesn’t look too hot as well, having had to push their DDRS thingie until 2027 or something (actually until the Japanese Grand Prix) and… other factors, their weekend will probably be a recovery one – as many points as possible. And, honestly, you can’t really tell what to expect from all the midfielders – Sauber and Force India are where they usually are in FP1, while no Williams predictions will ever be justified by anything.

So, going by that, let’s say we’re on for a repeat pole from Jenson, who’s looking very strong and confident indeed and certainly has the car to accomplish just that. I reckon that Alonso might just put that car into second, because he is Fernando and that’s how he does things. Third – yeah, I’ll go with Seb. Car doesn’t look good, but he doesn’t need that sometimes. I also expect to see Kimi, Lewis, Hulk, the two Mercs, Sergio and Pastor in Q3, although I’d hope Mark can get in there as well.

Race

The first back-to-back victory of the season is yet to come and how fitting it would be if in 2012 it would be a driver virtually out of contention for the championship. However, Jenson could do it and I would be massively happy to see him do it on Sunday. However, it might prove not quite so easy this time, with Alonso apparently being renowned for his Monza starts and the car looking fairly good.

Even so, throughout the race, I’d expect the Red Bull strategists to prevail and put Vettel ahead of Alonso, where he’d hold up the Spaniard for the majority of the race. That might be a bit of a long shot, but with this being a track that’s been kind to Vettel over the years, it could happen. As I predicted safety cars, I’d also expect to see both Lotus drivers do well, as Kimi is really consistent when it comes to staying out of trouble and I just generally have faith in Jerome. Mercedes should be there, but you just never know with their tyres, while Sauber look like their Spa form was just a one-off. Even still, Monza is not too different looking (and in layout) from Montreal, so I’d expect a solid race from Perez, barring any accidents. I’d also expect another solid performance from Hulkenberg, even though Paul di Resta should be a lot closer this time.

Who do I give the “Cucumber Award for Sporting Excellence” to? Well, honestly, even though I imagine Pastor to have one hell of a qualifying yet again, you do imagine he’ll have to start in the midfield and fight his way up, which is usually recipe for disaster. Yes, him crashing in Monza would be some kind of a statistical anomaly, but who else are you gonna bet on?

Post yours below, as always, you amateurs.

Qualifying:

1 – Jenson Button

2 – Fernando Alonso

3 – Sebastian Vettel

Race:

1 – Jenson Button

2 – Sebastian Vettel

3 – Fernando Alonso

Cucumber: Pastor Maldonado

 

 

Comments
  1. Hmmm… My predictions are completely different! xD Well, we’ll see tomorrow who’s got it right and who’s not!
    For qualifying, I don’t see the Bulls anywhere, they’ve got literally the worst top speed of any team and with no traction/downforce enhancers (see blown diffusers and flexi-front wing), they’re gonna have quite the hard time IMO. After watching FP1, both bulls have been the ones having the most trouble getting through the chicanes (Vettel jumped the first one over 3 times), and have been VERY discrete. There remain FP2 and FP3, but if their baseline is bad, chances are they won’t gain enough.

    Qualifying:
    POLE POSITION – Michael SCHUMACHER (The guy needs to retire with 69 ;D)
    2nd – Fernando ALONSO
    3rd – Jenson BUTTON (Though I believe Alonso, Button, Hamilton, Massa and Rosberg will be very close)

    Race:
    WINNER – Fernando ALONSO (In 2,010 he crashed at Spa, and then won it in Monza ;D haha, and Ferrari are usually very strong here)
    2nd – Jenson BUTTON (Though by little)
    3rd – Kimi RAIKKONEN (I believe will go do a one-stopper instead of 2, and will jump quite a bit of people ;D)

    Cucumber of the Race: Was between Maldonado and D’Ambrosio just to piss Steve off, but will end up choosing the obvious choice, Maldonado.

  2. Monza 2011.
    The race where Fernando had a killer start and went from 3rd to 1st (or something like that) before the first corner. The race where Liuzzi got the HRT into 7th for a brief moment, while playing bowling with an F1 car. The race where Vettikel (Hi Matt!) pulled that killer move on Alonso around the outside of Curva Grande and told all the critics who said Vettel could only win run-away races to fuck off.
    I think we have another exciting race in front of us!

    Allright, as for my predictions. I’ll stay fairly close to the predictions I made on the podcast.

    Qualifying:
    1 – Button (I originally had Hamilton in P1. But with all the Mercedes rumors going on he doesn’t seem to be in the right mindset to just stomp out a lap. So I give Button pole.)
    2 – Perez
    3 – Alonso

    Race:
    1 – Alonso
    2 – Perez
    3 – Button
    4 – d’Ambrosio

    The “Gurke”: Hamilton. With all the Mercedes talks going on he might just have a 2011 relapse and drive a really shit race, find Massa and crash into him.

  3. The Merc engines are dominating the top places in the practice sessions so I’ll do my predictions accordingly. I see Rosberg getting pole ahead of Button, but Button getting the edge in the race.

    Qualy:

    1. Rosberg
    2. Button
    3. Hamilton

    Race:

    1. Button
    2. Rosberg
    3. Massa

  4. thevillainf1 says:

    Tough one, but with Jerome in the mix now I’m going to have to go silly up in this motherfucker. Jenson showed in Spa that if set up well the Mclaren is pretty untouchable in the current low downforce spec, and the way the car looked planted in fp1 a 1nd 2 makes me think the best for the rest of the weekend. However Mclaren being Mclaren they will throw their dominance away as only they can do.

    Lewis is getting back into his 2011 Ali G mode it seems, and recently seeing a pic with his 2 earrings in my face (well, more like aside his, but still) makes the fanboy in me cry a little so I’m predicting silly stuff from him again. That, or the Maldonator will pull a Liuzzi and bowl Lewis out of the race. Button will be dominating but for some crap strategy will see him lose out.

    My predictions for quali are thus:

    pole: Button (to beat Lewis and make Lewlew throw another hissyfit)
    2. Hamilton
    3. Perez

    yea well the Saubers looked good in Spa untill Grosjean went full retard again so there..KAMUI FTW ELEVENTYONE!!!!

    win:
    1. Kobayashi
    2. Webber
    3. D’Ambrosio

    Don’t ask for any logic behind those predictions, I guess it’s just my dream podium lol. Jerome will kick some fucking ass and Rogro can go back to banking.🙂 That or I really dont want to win #PanzyPutin pic Journey has neglected to post about. After all, coming onboard the backmarkersf1 crew means you have to bare all! (guess he didn’t read the small print)

  5. thevillainf1 says:

    shit I forgot to officially nominate the cucumber but ofcourse it will be Maldonado.

  6. thevillainf1 says:

    You really should read the small print in your backmarkersf1 contract. IT clearly states whoever makes the predictions post delivers the winners’ pic! *quickly writes up new KONTRAKT*

  7. Spa and Monza double header has to be the best two consecutive weekends of the year😀
    Anyway…

    Qualy:
    1. Hamilton
    2. Schumi
    3. Kimi

    Race:
    1. Hamilton
    2. Alonso
    3. Jenson

    Cucumbré: Sorry, but I have to say Jerome😦 – I just think it will be super hard for him to get straight back into racing at the competitive end of the grid after a year out.

  8. Zrgn says:

    Quali

    1) hamilton
    2) button
    3) Perez

    Race

    1) Hamilton
    2) button
    3) Schumacher

    Cucumber: Maldanado

    Hamilton was angry at being takin to school by button (albeit as he proved with a new rear wing). He is gonna put it down n show who the no. 1 is. Maldanado on the other hand does a liuzzi

  9. David says:

    Quali:

    1st: Kamui Kobayashi
    2nd: Jenson Button
    3rd: Sergio Perez

    Race:

    1st: Jenson Button
    2nd: Sergio Perez
    3rd: Sebastian Vettel

    Cucumber: Kamui Kobayashi

  10. Quali:

    Hamilton
    Button
    Alonso

    Race:

    Hamilton
    Alonso
    Räikkönen

  11. Romano says:

    Qualy:

    1st – Hamilton, 2nd – Alonso, 3rd – Button

    Race:

    1st – Hamilton, 2nd – Alonso, 3rd – Button

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s