While you would think F1 would be used to having to deal with fading tyres after three years of ‘Pirelli spec’ racing, criticism on the Italian tyre manufacturer has never been so loud. It is painfully obvious, even to the untrained eye, that Formula 1 cars and drivers nowadays no longer push on the limit of what they and their vehicle are capable of. Webber famously called it ‘racing at 7 tenths’.  While precious few would like to see Red Bull and Vettel sweep to a fourth consecutive title, which is what Pirelli would have us believe if we’d bring back ‘Bridgestone spec’ racing, it also does not sit right that the fastest cars can’t actually exploit their prodigious speed because the tyres are such a severely limiting factor.

While Hembery shows great weakness with his often snappy and overly defensive attitude, we cannot lay all of the blame squarely at Pirelli’s feet. Sure, it does look like they went a step too far this year, with not only tyres degrading faster than an appearance on Jersey shore, but there have been a raft of suspicious tyre failures this year which Pirelli has not fully addressed yet. However, even that is not the point I want to make here.

After all ‘F1’ did ask Pirelli to re-create Canada 2010, where crazy unpredictable tyre degradation made for quite an exciting race in what for the most part were fairly boring spectacles during Vettel’s first title winning year. Pirelli was asked to deliver what are in essence crap tyres, in order to spice up the show. The number one point F1 tried to address with this was the severe lack of overtaking. For at least 2 decades now, F1 development has been dominated by aerodynamics. As the aero got stronger, so did the effect of the wake of dirty air behind the cars, which in turn made it even harder to overtake. At its peak, it was not uncommon to see those processional races Pirelli is now threatening us with – anyone remember the Schumi years? I don’t, I was asleep through 90% of the races then. I don’t think anyone wants to go back to those days where the finishing order is basically decided on Saturday, especially with today’s’ reliability records.

But are the rapidly degrading tyres really the only way forward to ‘spice up the show’? It is undeniable that the tyres do produce overtaking, but people are becoming more disillusioned with it. How many times do we hear drivers and engineers on the radio that it’s no point to defend position against a car on fresh rubber lapping 2-3 seconds per lap quicker than you? Is that really the show we are looking for. While I have my criticism on Pirelli and do not think they are doing an awesome job as some would suggest, I think the elephant in the room here is that F1 made a colossal mistake turning towards to tyres for spicing up the show, instead of looking at the root cause of F1′s overtaking problem.

The number one reason we did not see much overtaking anymore in the Bridgestone era (and before) was not the rock hard rubber, it was the aero wake making it nigh impossible to follow a rival car close enough in order to set up an overtake. When the number one cause for the lack of overtaking is well known to everybody, why do we turn to artificial measures which treat the symptoms, but not the cause. DRS, KERS, Pirelli, all would be unnecessary if F1 would just curb its dependence on aero performance.

This brings me to that other ‘artificial measure’ introduced to treat the symptom: DRS. Many purists still cry themselves to sleep thinking of the latest DRS pass where someone sails by a powerless opponent on the straight, slotting in in front of him before the next corner, and I cry with them. Again, we can fine-tune DRS to make sure that it does what’s intended: allow a car the chance to overtake by bringing him alongside in the braking zone. Still, we are only just treating the symptom. Nonetheless, DRS could go a long way to alleviate fears of processions. After all, we have never tested a ‘Bridgestone spec’ race with DRS enabled. It may very well already be enough to overcome the dirty air effect and bring overtaking back to F1 without relying on trick tyres which have the drivers cruising around 90% of the race in a desperate effort to eke out some extra tyre life, rather than fight the other guys around them.

F1 missed a crucial appointment in developing its 2014 rules. While the focus on new engines is probably a good thing for the sport in the future, and adding in another key performance differentiator other than aero, a bold F1 should have tackled aero dependence as well. Now you might say I want to ensure backmarkers F1 own Matt Ruda doesn’t end up getting a job in F1 when he graduates by banning aero altogether. While it would make me chuckle, such extreme measures are not needed. Back in the sixties teams did start bolting on wings as they discovered aero effects, but the first phase of true aero dominance in F1 focused on a whole different kind of aero to the one we are so familiar with today: ground effect…and it is effectively banned in F1 by the current rulebooks.

Ground effect sucks to cars down to the tarmac – rather than pushing them down with wings- but more crucially significantly reduces the impact of driving into a rival car’s dirty air. This way you can have the best of both worlds: the aero still ensures that cars go around corners at unimaginable speeds, retaining F1′s reputation as the pinnacle of motorsport, but it does not penalize the guy trying to overtake you behind. Sure, it would still drive up temperatures if stuck too long behind a rival car, but your grip levels would still be largely the same, opening the door to some pure overtakes again. You could see it clearly in the Spanish grand prix, the high levels of understeer generated from following close to another car in an attempt to set up an overtake. Pirellis do overcome this challenge by creating such huge lap deltas depending on where in the tyre’s life cycle a particular car is running at, but again, it’s treating a symptom, not the underlying cause.

I do not like what Pirelli was asked to bring to the sport, and I do not think Pirelli is doing the best job it can, even within the detailed brief they got from F1, but the real problem here is still being ignored. Let’s stop bashing Pirelli and attack the root cause of F1’s problems:  reduce ‘wing’ aero dependence, re-introduce ground effect aero,  return to ‘normal’ racing tyres. We can even keep DRS as an intermediate measure just to make sure processions do not occur. Maybe then F1 will be a real show again, with drivers pushing 100%, all of the time, rather than a Cirque du Soleil fantasy piece it is becoming.

Ok, so I didn’t make any predictions nor did you receive a foul mouthing podcast from us after the Chinese GP. After all, there was not much bashing to do except for maybe Gutierrez mistaking Sutil for a hot blonde he decided to hump from behind, and a lap before that, the Force India pair coming together.

There is clearly no love lost between Sutil and Di Resta, though Paul should probably be a bit more careful going against Adrian when the last time he was in China he glassed a rival team boss, so who knew what he’d be ready to do against his team rival.. Anyway both got away from that one  fairly unscathed until Karma caught up with Sutil in the form of a rear end assault by aforementioned Mexican. Hope he didn’t bring the hot salsa!

Alonso stormed to a dominant win – the first Ferrari win in normal, dry conditions on both Saturday and Sunday in about 3 years saying much about the teams overall competitiveness in years past – Raikkonen couldn’t care less about a broken nose while Hamilton salvaged third from a charging Vettel. In any case, the podium trio was a lot more chirpy compared to 3 weeks ago in Malaysia.

Qualifying was a quite disappointing experience, with lots of dead air – Bernie will have surely taken note – because of the tyres basically dominating proceedings. With everybody frantic to save sets, and in the knowledge that the soft tyre had the durability of Vanilla Ice’s career as a rapper, q1 saw like 10 minutes of empty track, when q3 devolved into a classic 1 lap shootout which did have its merits…for the full 2 minutes that it lasted.

When the 1 lap wonderboy, polesitter in previous 2 races, defending triple WDC doesn’t bother to even try to grab pole because of the tyres, something is fundamentally wrong. Turn it however you want, it is not right nor good for f1 to have a top team believing their best chance is to skip quali to save a set of rubber instead of going for pole. Ok, it turned out Red Bull was wrong this time, but the fact they considered it their best strategy says a lot about the mindset about qualifying in 2013. Button was another one who took that call, although in his case one could argue that going oddball on strategy was his only chance of a good result keeping in mind the poor pace of his car.

Anyway on to Bahrain, F1s miserable lot of failed journos with ego’s the size of the Pulitzer they will never receive will get their chance to play real journalism as they watch Bahrainis getting tear gassed. Frankly I’m over it already. If we are brutally honest, I do not think many people, fans and personnel alike, have any interest left in Bahrain’s political situation. Should Bernie stop taking F1 to moneyladen countries to tracks with no soul, sure. Should F1 care about the political situation in the country? Let the UN handle that one to make strong objections against the inadmissible actions of a repressive government all the while continuing to monitor the situation closely without ofcourse ever bothering to do anything except send some high paid emissaries to be wined and dined… 

On to the racing then. As said by Wollf and Hamilton, Bahrain will be a good acid test for Mercedes to see if they can really be an outsider for the title. The key question is whether they can get their rear tyres to survive longer than a black man in a horror movie. Contrary to China, and much like Big Dickus in Girls Gone Wild 532,  this track gives a serious pounding to the rears, which has been the Merc’s biggest weakness in past years. Th high temps, nature of the corners and sandy track will make tyres yet again a key talking point of the weekend. It will also be interesting to see how the Red Bulls fare after slipping up a bit in China with some stupid pitcrew fumbles on Webbo’s car (who else) and a bad strategy call for Vettel. Are we really starting to see chinks in the Red Bull armor following the Multi21 controversy?

Ferrari will be keen to get some momentum going for Nando’s title challenge, who clearly dismissed any doubts to who was boss by convincingly outperforming Massa again. Though Massa has finally got on top of qualifying, his race pace has vanished mysteriously in the past 2 GPs, and now that Ferrari have a keen eye on the performances of Bianchi, the situation is not like last year where his seat was saved more by lack of a suitable Ferrari replacement rather than his little resurgence. With Bianchi in the wings, Massa needs to show he can be Alonso’s ideal wingman. To be that, he really should have been there with Hamilton and Raikkonen to take more points off Vettel, but his race pace was just not there as he finished behind even Button.

Raikkonen shot out of nowhere during q3 in China, and if he can keep that sort of qualifying performances up he will have eliminated Lotus’ biggest weakness since last yr having compromised races from lap 1 due to always starting 6-7th. Grosjean has not been doing the silly things he did last year, but has also shown none of his sometimes prodigal pace. Coulthard put it best in his BBC column when he said that soon Romain should start crashing in a race for us to even notice he’s there. Blaming his woes on a mysterious car issue is also not doing him any good, he should look inward, knuckle down and get back on track after the slide which really started after he tried decapitating Alonso at la Source.

Further down the grid Sutil and Di Resta will continue their war which seems to get edgier with every race, Gutierrez will continue to be eaten alive by the Hulk in a largely disappointing Sauber, Williams will continue to suck while Pastor loses his marbles having been beaten 3 races in a row by a rookie teammate. Ricciardo seems to finally be showing he’s got the goods to take Mark’s seat while Vergne should probably start fearing the Marko axe, especially if Da Costa pulls of another of his stellar performances in his first full season of WSR.

The last interesting tidbit to come out this week was Heikki Kovalainen returning to Caterham as a reserve driver in a role reversal with Van der Garde. It seems like Caterham are only now realizing that ditching an experienced hand like Kovi (and to lesser extent, Petrov) and replacing them with a rookie and a 2nd year guy from another backmarker team when you are trying to climb up the grid is not conducive to great performances. Taking back Heikki is a clear admission of the team that their current drivers don’t cut it, at least when it comes to developing a car. The distance between Pic and VDgarde suggests the Dutchman can’t cut it at all. Sure he is an F1 rookie, but he has had many years of experience in powerful machinery nonetheless and did some practice outings last year, so he is better prepared than most rookies. Anyway, should either of their drivers hit financing troubles, Heikki is now right there to slot into the seat, and that won’t help the pressure being already felt by the drivers in the Caterham team, who went from ‘we’re about to catch the midpack’ to ‘damned those Marussia’s are stomping us’. Mind you, Marussia still has the crap Cosworth to fight Caterham’s Renault with, making their season start all the more impressive.

Anyway quick prediction for Bahrain pulled out of my arse:

Quali:

1.Webber

2.Vettel

3.Alonso

 

Race:

1.Raikkonen

2.Webber

3.Alonso

Go ahead and share yours below, am sure I can find a perfectly cringeworthy picture of Valentin eating da poopoo on some obscure Russian site as this year’s prize: The Wanking Webbo

BackmarkersF1 Podcast Episode 19: Malaysian Malaise

Posted: March 27, 2013 by thevillainf1 in Uncategorized

BackmarkersF1 gets back on track for the 2013 season with a review of the first two Grand Prix of the year, interrupted by rantings, ravings and general obscenity with Matt, Marvin, Valentin; and back after a very long hiatus, myself. We dig deep into the Multi-21 controversy, we wonder where Mercedes’ pace came from over the winter, Matt took some time off from worshiping at his Adrian Newey shrine to join us,  I drool over Bianchi, Marvin renounces his German nationality and turns Swiss while Valentin eats da poopoo.. I may have mixed up a few things in the description but whatever. Join us now for the low down on the start of the 2013 F1 season!


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F1 Fratricide! Teammate Wars Predictions

Posted: March 13, 2013 by thevillainf1 in Insights

We’ve had our mouths full about F1 teams over the past few months. First we got all giddy for a few car launches – seemingly less flashy every year – of this or that team, then we were happy to just see some cars going around a track in Jerez and Barcelona. The tech experts were analyzing every minute detail to be found on the teams’ 2013 contenders, trying to unravel what 2013s special innovation would prove to be. But in all that excitement to see what the design teams have come up with this year, we almost forget to look at that most captivating of components in a formula 1 car: the drivers. When talking about who is the greatest: Vettel, Hamilton, Alonso or Raikkonen, there is massive fanboyism guiding people’s view, but the one nagging problem remains: you will never really know who is the best unless they are pitted against each other in equal machinery. Top Gear is a cool show, and I love watching the laps in the ‘reasonably priced car’, so while it was fun to see Hamilton get a lot of pleasure ousting Vettel from the n1 spot recently, it can never really be an accurate measure of speed. What we want is to watch F1 drivers battle each other in F1 cars on the limit. While we are robbed of this in most cases, we can still cherish those wonderful teammate rivalries, where – unless you drive at Red Bull or Ferrari – two drivers are given an equal chance to go out there and see who’s best without the car coming into play. With this post I want to dive back into the F1 season here at backmarkers F1, and in a first installment of 2013 predicitions, predict the winners of the teammate wars!

 

1.Red Bull

No surprises here. Webber is just not as good as Vettel over the course of a season so one kind of has to agree with Marko (shocking, I know), that while Webbo can have his gifted moments when he’s unbeatable, they are much too rare to make him into a world champ anytime soon, especially with the triple world champ at his side. Nobody is in any doubt as to who the number 1 is in this team, and whether both drivers really do get an equal chance is therefore debatable.

 

2.Ferrari

Even worse than Red Bull, Ferrari only knows 1 leader, and that’s Nando. Felipe can just about tie Alonso’s shoelaces when it comes to comparing skill, and is just happy to still be driving an
F1 car (and so he should after last year’s horrifying performance)

 

3. Mclaren

Here it gets interesting. Losing their wonderboy Hamilton, Mclaren thought to have landed a coup by signing young hotshot Sergio Perez, who caught the eye with some great podiums last year, but also raised some eyebrows with lesser inspired events, especially during the latter part of the season. Button has been a quick and reliable hand for Mclaren, but he has never shown that outright one lap pace needed to be able to fight at the front at every GP. The same problem befell Perez last year, so one must wonder how much Mclaren will suffer not having that ace qualifier up their sleeve. That said, with Button’s experience Perez should be easy pickings for the most experienced driver on the grid, and if he does get beaten by the Mexican many will wonder whether he still has a place in F1. Anyway, I predict Button to rather comfortably beat Perez, all the while squandering another great Mclaren car mostly due to poor qualifying performances.

 

4. Lotus

Raikkonen and Grosjean are quite an exciting pairing. While Grosjean  seemed to have the upper hand in qualifying last year – no mean feat against the iceman – Kimi’s superb racecraft ultimately made him beat Grosjean quite handily over the course of the season, topping it off with an emphatic (though inherited) win. Having been given another chance by his team to prove he can turn that blistering speed into something worthwile when there are others on track around him, Grosjean could put pressure on Kimi. However, while we granted Romain a second rookie year in 2012, we shouldn’t forget that Kimi was also coming back to F1 after a long absence, and having seen Schumi struggle with the vastly changed formula this was no mean feat. In his second year at the team, it is clear Kimi has galvanized the team around him, fully acclimatized back to F1 and I predict to see more stunning performances of the Fin this year, leaving Grosjean behind in the dust…but hopefully not in the gravel trap..

 

5.Mercedes

Perhaps the most exciting battle to look forward to.  The back story works perfectly: good friends and teammates in the old karting days face off again with equal weapons. While nobody would label Rosberg a slouch, there has always been that reluctance to count him as a truly great driver as he has never really been measured against a known quantity within a team. While he did easily have the measure of Schumacher in their years together, there will always remain the doubts of whether Schumacher was more than just a shadow of the 7 time World Champ he retired as the 1st time around. This is a huge opportunity for Rosberg to finally prove what he is really worth against Hamilton in his prime. If Rosberg can make life difficult for Hamilton then it is already mission accomplished for him in 2013. While I do think Rosberg will keep Lewis honest I do not think he will be a match for the Briton’s blinding pace.

 

6.Sauber

The Swiss team has an all new driver line up for 2013 after seeing Perez swooped up by Mclaren and mercilessly sacking Kamui Kobayashi. 2012 was the best year for the team since the BMW days, and they look keen to build on that success with an innovative car which raised some eyebrows in testing. With the field looking so close again this year, we shouldn’t be surprised to see Sauber take a few more podiums again. The signing of Hulkenberg was a major coup for the Swiss team, however their n2 driver for the year is a bit of a doubt. To keep the Mexican backing going Gutierrez was almost a shoe in for the team to replace compatriot Perez, and he has some pretty big shoes to fill. I’d think another year in GP2 would have probably served him better, and going up against the Hulk he is just going to get eaten alive.

 

7.Force India

While a bit of a shock decision, the return of Adrian Sutil is after all a fairly conservative choice as he had shown in testing that he has not lost much of his edge during his 1 year of forced leave. With the team in financial trouble – though nobody within the team is ready to admit it, the financial woes of the two main backers Mallya and Sahara are well documented – the Medion sponsorship money brought by Sutil will also have played a part. After all, Bianchi’s backing is down to Ferrari support, not necessarily  the cold hard cash the team would have needed. Sutil is a known quantity and a safe pair of hands capable of a good turn of speed on his day, as he has shown on the final few GPs before his sacking in 2011. Di Resta came into the sport on a wave of hype but has largely failed to deliver. Having been severely trounced by Hulkenberg in the latter half of 2012 his reputation – and probably his confidence too – has taken a hit. If he does not show anything special again, he is likely to remain stuck in the midfield for eternity..like Sutil.  With an extra year under his belt, and Sutil despite his strong showing in testing probably a bit rusty still, I do believe Di Resta will edge him out, but the FI this year doesn’t look competitive enough to allow either of them those eye catching performances which lift you out of the midfield.

 

8. Williams

If you’d ask me about Williams around this time last year, I would have told you about the most embarrassing pay driver line up  in the history of F1. Maldonado the 30 million dollar crash baby and senna the 15 ish million dollar ‘cousin of..’ was truly an embarrassing line-up for such an iconic squad. You’d expect something like that from a backmarker team but Williams? But low and behold, Maldonado proved that when he is alone of the track and stays focused, he does actually possess talents beyond the hard Venezuelan cash by winning in Barcelona and pulling off a few remarkable qualifying laps throughout the season in proper balls hanging out of the cockpit style. Senna on the other hand continued to disappoint with lackluster weekends all around. Sadly the weaknesses of their driver line up resulted in the team ending up ridiculously low on the WCC standing despite having had a pretty damned good race car all year long. This year they are bringing in the hottest new F1 talent in a few years with Valterri Bottas. With 15 practice outings last year he should be better prepared than most rookies, but we should not expect miracles from the next flying Fin in the first half of 2013. After all he has never raced anything bigger than a GP3 car, and has not competed in a Grand Prix since then. However once he gets the hang of it he will have Maldonado fuming at the wheel by being bitchslapped by a younger – unfunded – driver with the same equipment. #BOTTAS ftw oh, and also #PERRRKELE

 

9. Toro Rosso

Red Bull’s bitch squad had a pretty torrid 2012 after unceremoniously sacking its previous crop of wannabe Vettels. Having two rookies at the wheel of a difficult car will always keep you on the backfoot, and the STR team never really seemed to get their head round the 2012 season. Having now had their rookie year, the excuses will be running thin for the Red Bull juniors if they don’t want to end up like Buemi and Alguersuari. Like their predecessors and their internal fight, there was not much to choose between them last year. While Ricciardo did largely edge Vergne due to his much superior qualifying pace. Vergne will really need to get on top of quali to fulfill the great potential I do believe he has. The car doesn’t look like it will be much more competitive than last year so either one of their drivers will have to trounce the other one to stand any chance of survival in Helmut Marko’s madhouse. His qualifying needs to be sorted but in terms of racecraft he more often than not had the upper hand on Ricciardo last year and we all know that in the end it’s only the result on Sunday which counts.. Ricciardo did show glimpses of greatness last year so this is a fight that will be very hard to call. Still,  I tip Vergne for this year.

 

10. Caterham

…..Meh…

 

I guess with this being backmarkersF1 and all I should be exited when talking about the backmarkers, especially the lovely Caterham team.. and then they had to go and drop Heikki ‘PERRRKELE’ Kovalainen (boooo) and Vitaly ‘InRussiaCarDriveYou’ Petrov  (applause). They have pushed Williams off the throne for 2013’s ‘grab the cash and go’ driver line-up award by signing Guido Van Der Garde and Charles Pic. While Pic did show some proper ability in last year’s Marussia, where he showed more than respectably against experienced hand Glock, Van Der Garde is someone who has ended up in F1 just because he had the biggest sack of money available at the time. Sure he was WSR champion about ten decades ago. Then he spent a few lightyears in GP2 being mostly just not good enough to consistently compete with the top guys. Pic will handily beat him this year, and may just be able to get me excited about this team again if he continues the way he ended last year.

 

11. Marussia

While their lineup was looking dire as well with Max ‘MyDaddyhaslotsofmoney’ Chilton and Luis ‘HeresaCheckbutdonttakeit tothebankjustyet’’ Razia, the latter’s last minute funding trouble gave un unexpected chance to Bianchi to finally grab an F1 race seat after a few years of waiting in the wings. In the end, it is probably even better for Bianchi to start at the back of the grid where there is little pressure than there would have been at Force India. The guy has speed but has shown a remarkable weakness under pressure and this low profile entry into f1 might just be the ticket to unlock his full potential. The Marussia team is looking better than ever, having already largely caught up with Caterham last year, which is no mean feat considering they had the crummy Cosworth engine and no KERS. With KERS coming onboard for 2013, Pat Symonds fully into the team having served his crashgate ban and a technical partnership with Mclaren ongoing, I think this year Marussia will beat Caterham on merit. As far as the teammates go, Bianchi will easily dispatch Chilton to go crying home to poppa. I’s official:  my backmarkersF1 support now goes to Marussia instead of Caterham.

 

Share your take on the 2013 teammate wars below, just a few days left now for us to start finding out!

Wazzup everyone? It has certainly been a while. Sure, we’ve been doing Bortz videos and covering testing here and there, but we finally got together to do a podcast. In the process, a random Australian showed up.

That’s right! Long time listener and awesome dude @darthcookied a.k.a. Adam joined Marvin, Valentin, and myself in going through our predictions for the 2013 season. We go team by team, we fight, we love, we get offers of woman’s chest promotion, and more! Adam will be going to the Australian GP, taking loads of photos, video, and buying us all tons of souvenirs and stuff.

I hope y’all enjoy the first 2013 episode of BackmarkersF1. We’re back baby!

Oh, and if anyone out there wants to join me in an awesome gaming group, check out gbuclan.com. We’ve undergone a bit of a renovation and have big things planned for the future. Check us out, play games with me, and yell at me for bashing your favorite team. ;)


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Your Comprehensive Silly Season Guide: End of the Year

Posted: December 11, 2012 by Valentin Khorounzhiy in Insights

Even with the 2012 season of Formula One wrapped up, we still can’t tell who all the winners and losers are as several teams are still stalling with the announcement of their 2013 lineups. However, before we dip into that, let’s see, how the rumour-reliant method has ended up working for me previously. Below is the list of my previous “likely estimations” and whether or not they have stood the test of the many announcements made by the teams since then:

  • Ferrari: Fernando AlonsoFelipe Massa
  • Lotus: Kimi Raikkonen – Romain Grosjean
  • Sauber: Jaime AlguersuariEsteban Gutierrez
  • Force India: Nico Hulkenberg – Paul di Resta
  • Williams: Pastor MaldonadoValtteri Bottas
  • Toro Rosso: Daniel RicciardoJean-Eric Vergne
  • Caterham: Heikki Kovalainen – Charles Pic
  • Marussia: Timo Glock – Max Chilton
  • HRT: Pedro de la RosaDani Clos

Bolded are the predictions that ended up correct (or, honestly, were already correct as of writing that previous piece – as with Alonso and, seemingly, Glock). In italics are the predictions that fell flat – obviously, I did not see the HRT demise coming and Hulkenberg’s move to Sauber was slightly surprising, though, it didn’t come straight out of the left field.

Finally, a more recent development links one Nico Hulkenberg to Sauber. Can’t comment on that much besides saying that it’s a rumour, but news have come out of less.

In regular text are the names of the drivers whose position is still not confirmed or whose seat is being heavily contested for by other hopefuls, but more on that later. Finally, underlined are the names of the teams that have already confirmed their driver lineups for 2013 (or, in the case of HRT, have unfortunately ceased to exist) and are of no interest to us in this analysis.

With that in mind, let’s go into the remaining stretch of the silly season and see, team-by-team, which driver is linked with which squad.

Lotus – after the comeback season Kimi Raikkonen has been enjoying, it was pretty much a no-brainer for Lotus to keep him in the team at all costs and that they did. It’s become much more complicated with the second seat, as Romain Grosjean, who’s enjoyed a fantastic first part of the season, seemingly lost a huge chunk of his confidence after being handed a one-race ban after Spa. In the second part of the year, Grosjean, while still remarkably quick on one lap pace, was never particularly impressive with the races, especially when they didn’t last very long for him as he continued to struggle with completing the first lap without any accidents, whether his fault or not.

As such, Lotus have been stalling on re-signing the Swiss-born Frenchman for another year, reportedly asking Total for more money in sponsorship. Also, reportedly, Total wouldn’t be so keen on that as some rumours suggest they’re slightly wary of being associated with Grosjean due to them being major proponents and financiers of safe driving campaigns and him not exactly fitting that image.

With that, naturally, rumours of Grosjean being replaced have been appearing all over the place, though the media has hardly concentrated on one particular figure to consider.

The most major option for Lotus as of now seems to be Heikki Kovalainen – the Finnish press have been reporting that alleged negotiations have taken place between Heikki and the team from Enstone. From a certain perspective, it’s a move that would make sense – it’s looking highly unlikely that Heikki will get to keep his Caterham seat and, having spent 2007 driving for Renault F1, Lotus as of now is probably the team he has most contacts in. Still, apart from the occasional mention, there has been nothing solid linking Heikki to Lotus, but, again, crazier things have happened, this very year in fact.

Another option, this one especially popular with the fans of the sport, seems to be for Lotus to go with Kamui Kobayashi who has been dropped by Sauber in favour of either Hulkenberg or Gutierrez. Following that, Kamui has started a fundraiser campaign and managed to raise, at this point, more than two million US Dollars – a sum that’s nothing compared to what the likes of Senna, van der Garde and others are reportedly carrying around with them, but could still be an indicator to teams that Kobayashi is the popular man in F1. Still, there’s been nothing definite or particularly reputable connecting Kamui to that seat, so, I’m afraid, it might just be a whole lot of wishful thinking.

Finally, Lotus always have their reserve driver, Jerome d’Ambrosio, but, even though he did reasonably when replacing Grosjean at Monza, he probably is not the level Lotus would be looking for.

EDIT: According to @GrandPrixDiary and numerous other sources, Italian journalists are spreading info about Lotus looking into signing GP2 champion Davide Valsecchi. It’s hard to see happening, but then again, he did test for them at this year’s YDT and top the timesheets against drivers in better machinery – could it be they’re that impressed? Doubt it.

Recent rumours suggest that Grosjean’s future could be announced either this or next week. And, honestly, it’s really hard to see Lotus dropping him at this point.

Estimated likeliest pairing: Kimi Raikkonen (confirmed) – Romain Grosjean

Force India – while there has been no official confirmation of sorts, it seems widely believed that Force India will retain Paul di Resta for 2013, even though the Brit’s perspectives have been looking a tad less bright since Mercedes announced Hamilton with di Resta also seemingly losing the teammate battle to Hulkenberg at the end of the year. Still, with Force India officials being super defensive about Paul’s season and sounding pretty sure they’re retaining him, I wouldn’t bet against this one.

As to his likeliest teammate, while the rumours have been suggesting that the usual suspects are being considered (Jaime Alguersuari, Sebastien Buemi, reserve driver Jules Bianchi), it seems that two people have been regarded as the prime candidates for the seat. The first one of them is Bruno Senna who, even after being expectedly laid off by Williams, still has plentiful backing and seemed to be the likeliest choice for the latest few weeks.

However, as of now, the tide has changed, and the vast majority of rumours now suggest that FI are very close to signing Adrian Sutil. It might seem far-fetched to some as Sutil still has that whole suspended sentence for inflicting bodily harm on Genii Capital’s Eric Lux, which would complicate quite a few things, not the least of which is him even getting access to some of the countries where F1 races in. At the same time, on every other level it makes perfect sense – Sutil has been with the team in its various iterations since the beginning of his F1 career in 2007, has always been decently quick and has especially impressed in 2010 – so much so, that it was suggested he was dropped only because FI already had an agreement with Hulkenberg in place.

With the announcement of FI’s lineup (or, rather, according to Autosport, di Resta’s partner) due this week, don’t be surprised if the squad ends up giving you a massive feeling of déjà vu.

Estimated likeliest pairing: Paul di Resta (almost confirmed) – Adrian Sutil

Caterham - it was relatively well-known that Charles Pic was a major candidate for a race seat in Caterham, however, to have him confirmed right in the middle of the final race weekend of the year was a bit of a shock. Still, in a sense, it made the situation a whole lot clearer – with Fernandes stepping down as the team principal and Abiteboul taking his place, it seems now that the fight for the second Caterham seat is a two-horse race.

Seemingly not a part of that race is Heikki Kovalainen – while many pundits suggested that Caterham saving 10th place in the 2012 World Constructors’ Championship could give Caterham enough money to keep him, it doesn’t seem that either the team or, really, Heikki are too keen on that idea. While Kovalainen has been fast enough in the three years it has spent with Caterham (or Team Lotus, if you like), 2012 was arguably his weakest season, as good qualifying performances were usually followed by races where things didn’t go so well, especially compared to his teammate. As such, the cost of keeping Heikki around might be too high for Caterham now, when there’s a plethora of drivers who can be generally as productive and bring money with themselves.

One of those drivers is, yet again, Bruno Senna, but rumours have stated his backers aren’t interesting in paying for a seat in one of the backmarker teams. Surely, Caterham could use the money he’d bring along, but it looks like Senna is counting on more.

With that, the list is largely narrowed down to two candidates. One of them is Giedo van der Garde, who spent 2012 as Caterham’s reserve driver and seems to have decent financial backing from the Dutch firm McGregor. A WSR winner, van der Garde has been in the whereabouts of an F1 seat for quite some time now but always came short. At 27 and after another decent year in GP2, this might be his final chance and, in this author’s opinion, he is one driver who’s been long overdue a proper F1 shot.

Who’s the other one? Why, the man who gave Caterham 10th in the standings at Interlagos – Vitaly Petrov. While mid-season things seemed to have went haywire for the Russian as he was noticeably struggling to come up with sponsorship for a 2013 seat, to the point where his manager had to pretty much postpone all negotiations with teams. However, lately, it’s all been looking up, as reputable sources (among which, Joe Saward) believe he might just have the backing to edge out the competition for the seat. Again, even disregarding the money, Petrov has looked mighty impressive in comparison to his teammate on Sundays, so it would make sense for the team to retain him. As of now, his manager is reportedly in advanced negotiations with Caterham and it seems likely that the outcome of that will decide the fate of the 2nd Caterham seat.

Estimated likeliest pairing: Charles Pic (confirmed) – Vitaly Petrov

Marussia - while there hasn’t technically been a confirmation that Timo Glock will be one of Marussia’s drivers for 2013, both the team and the press appear more sure of it than even in di Resta’s case. Glock is reportedly on a multi-year contract and it’s hard to see Marussia wanting to pay him off as he is obviously both quick and experienced and very nearly gave Marussia the much desired 10th place in the WCC with his excellent Singapore drive.

As for whoever the second driver is going to be, you’d have expected Max Chilton to be officially announced by now but, for whatever reason, he hasn’t been. Again, with no evident competition for the seat and Chilton reportedly bringing in lots and lots of money, it’d be very hard to imagine why not everything is clear at Marussia at this point. Alas, I’m afraid I’m at a loss here – the only possible reason for Chilton not to be signed, as this was something all of us were 99.9% certain of when he was announced as their reserve driver, is someone else showing up with even more money.

Some of the recent rumours point to Ma Qing Hua – and, while you’d imagine he can probably outbid the Brit, it would be one massive risk to take for Marussia if they want to take the fight to Caterham next year.

It is worth noting that Carlin, the GP2 team partnered with Marussia, have already announced their 2013 lineup, replacing their 2012 drivers Chilton and Rio Haryanto being replaced by Felipe Nasr and Jolyon Palmer. While Haryanto is expected to be signed by one of the top teams for the 2013 season of GP2, same can not be said for Chilton, who probably isn’t even considering that possibility – so, looking at those signs, you’d imagine his future to be F1-bound already.

Estimated likeliest pairing: Timo Glock (multi-year contract) – Max Chilton

What a race. The Brazilian GP had to be the single best sporting event ever performed in the history of humanity. It was seriously that good. In fact, just thinking about it now necessitates a change of pants. I brought Valentin and Marvin along to discuss this epic conclusion to the 2012 season, and the year in total. We give out some awards, talk shit about Grosjean, and all the other goodness you expect from us here. Time references will be here shortly, and be warned, this is another long cast.
Quick note, I did record myself playing Chivalry while we were doing this cast. It requires a lot less concentration and reaction time than a racing game, and it was easier to record live instead of trying to find the exact length of race required to fill the space. I’ll link it here, but just a note there is game audio in it as well, so if you just want to hear us talking, stick to the recordings I’ve attached below.
I want to thank all of you listeners and fans out there for making 2012 amazing. Between the show and Twitter banter/debates/fights over drivers you guys have made this something special. Roll on 2013. :)

Link to video w/ hot Chivalry action:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFJiHdntHCc&feature=plcp

Normal Audio:


Download:

Time References:
0:00:00 - Intro
0:01:07 - Proper Intro
0:02:17 - Best Race Ever
0:09:00 - Vettel Magic (Red Bull)
    0:10:40 - Webber's Moments
    0:14:00 - Praise for Red Bull's Strategists
    0:15:40 - It Wasn't Yellow
    0:16:50 - Classification Confirmed
0:17:30 - Oh Dear, It's Happened Again (McLaren)
    0:19:20 - Where Lewis Drops Out, Jenson Picks Up
    0:21:00 - Could Lewis Have Won It?
    0:21:40 - McLaren Season Summary
0:23:00 - "Felipe Massa Is Back" (Ferrari)
    0:25:10 - Kimi Gets Funnier - Intermission
    0:25:50 - Stellar Fernando Not Enough
0:26:10 - Grosjean Crashed, Nobody Noticed (Lotus)
    0:27:50 - "They're Gonna Get Rid of Him" - "They Won't"
    0:28:00 - Kobayashi in for Grosjean - Matt's Dreams
    0:29:10 - Kimi's Different Race
0:31:00 - "Das Wonderboy of the British Isles?" (Force India)
    0:33:50 - Force India Season Summary - A Fitting End
0:34:50 - "A Team We Ignored" (Mercedes)
    0:35:20 - "P15 for Rosberg" - "Ooooh"
    0:37:30 - "We Kinda Forgot About Something Here" - Schumacher's Last Race
0:38:20 - Sarcasm for Kobayashi (Sauber)
    0:38:50 - First Lap Accidents
    0:39:30 - "A Strong Feeling FOM is Run by One Guy in a Room"
    0:40:50 - Kobayashi's Great Race?
    0:42:30 - "Those Japanese People on Twitter"
0:43:00 - First Lap Accident - Senna's Fault? (Williams)
    0:43:50 - "And Then Maldonado Dropped Out... At Some Point"
0:44:40 - Esteban Gutierrez "From Mexico" - Back to Sauber
0:47:30 - Jean-Eric Vergne, "P8, Good Job" (Scuderia Toro Rosso)
    0:48:10 - Toro Rosso Season Summary
0:49:30 - "Speaking of Caterham" (The Backmarkers)
    0:50:00 - Did Marussia Deserve P10?
    0:50:40 - "A Nice Battle at the Back"
    0:51:20 - Kudos to HRT
    0:54:30 - Heikki, Vitaly or Giedo?
0:55:50 - Season Review: The Races
0:59:00 - Season Review: The Teams
1:02:50 - Season Review: Awards Ceremony
    1:03:10 - The Gurke of the Year ("Worst" Driver of the Year?)
    1:07:30 - The Most Dissapointing Team of the Year
    1:14:20 - Rookie of the Year
    1:15:20 - Driver Who Improved Most During the Year
    1:16:50 - Team That Improved Most During the Year
    1:19:10 - Best Race Apart From Brazil
    1:21:00 - The Drive of the Year
    1:23:25 - Funniest Moment of the Year (and Second Funniest Moment of the Year)
    1:24:35 - Driver of the Year
    1:33:00 - Best Driver on Social Media
1:34:30 - Expectations for 2013
    1:37:40 - What's in Store for Lewis?
    1:41:40 - Who Are Going to Take the Remaining Seats?
    1:51:40 - New Teams to Join F1?
1:53:00 - Outro

Silly Season Aftershocks

Posted: October 24, 2012 by thevillainf1 in Insights

At this time each year when the silly season is dying down after the wildest rumors have circulated – usually for most things to remain the same – we start seeing the winners and losers of this year’s carousel. Lewis Hamilton’s shock move to Mercedes was definitely the catalyst for the scrambling for seats which ensued down the grid. With one of the most coveted seats in F1 suddenly available it must have been a frenzy of driver managers at Woking, but the Telmex backing and Sergio Perez’s eye catching performances this year seem to have quickly swayed Martin Whitmarsh, taking the wind out of the sails of Lewis’ announcement with the surprising signing of the young Mexican.

Mclaren is taking another gamble, and the more I think of it I believe the team may have acted too rash in signing Perez. After all, with talents like Hulkenberg and Di Resta available (and probably looking for a way out of Force India) better options were available to them, and aside from PR purposes, there was no reason for MClaren to take such a rushed decision. It seems a bit rash to go for Perez, who – if you can look past the bling of the podiums – seems to be much rougher around the edges than the Force India pairing whose only limiting factor has been the car this year. Instead, it looks like the Hulk will go on to take Perez’s Sauber seat, in the hope the team can produce another great car for next year. This would then make Perez and Hulkenberg the big winners out of the reshuffle brought about by Hamilton’s move and Schumacher’s subsequent retirement..but who are the losers in this affair?

The biggest loser would seem Paul Di Resta. From the time he entered Formula One, he seemed destined to inherit Schumacher’s Mercedes seat once the latter finally chose to retire (again). Heavily backed by Mercedes throughout his career –winning a DTM title on the way – which reportedly  came with a good engine deal for his current team Force India, the Scotsman has now been left out to dry. With Rosberg already firmly entrenched and signed on a multi-year deal, Hamilton’s three year contract with the team effectively barred him from following what seemed to be his ‘natural’ line of progression.

Ditching Anthony Hamilton as his manager for Jenson Button’s management company may have come back to haunt him, as with daddy Hamilton’s links at Mclaren who knows what he could have concocted behind the scenes. As it was know, Mclaren were probably reluctant to have both their drivers in the same management stable, especially if one of those drivers co-owned the bloody thing. The future therefore looks pretty unclear for Paul. Within the space of a few months he saw a high chance of a Mercedes seat transform into a scramble to keep a Force India seat.

Not that the Indian team has any reason to sack him, but it’s reasonable to think that if it exists – though the existence of this has always been denied by both parties -  the engine deal on the back of Di Resta’s contract will no longer hold, as why would Merc continue to support a driver they do not seem to have a place for anyway in the next few years. With Hulk then taking the Sauber seat, there seems to be no other option higher up the grid for Di Resta but to stay put at FI and hope that the collapse of Vijay’s empire doesn’t bring down the F1 team as well. The team will need money next year, lots of it, and I doubt Mallya will be able to bring the funds needed when he’s not paying staff of his crashing airline. FI may be reduced to having to hire a  pay driver in the end, but Paul is probably too good to be ditched by FI.

Perez moving to Mclaren initially seemed to relieve some pressure on Kobayashi to retain his Sauber seat, and his podium in his home country surely encouraged this optimism. However it’s looking likely Sauber will replace Perez with the other Mexican from the Telmex stable, Esteban Gutierrez, so in fact the Perez move did not change much at all for Kobayashi. Even if Sauber decides it’s better for Gutierrez to mature another year in GP2, there is no shortage of candidates for the Sauber drives with their tidy 2012 car. With all the top drives already handed out a Sauber seat is just about the hottest property in F1 right now. Granted, Lotus have not confirmed their line-up for next year but Kimi will stay and unless Grosjean does some more dumb stuff he will also keep his seat. Williams also have not officially confirmed their drivers yet, but with Pastors 28 million, Bruno’s weak performances and Bottas’ obvious talent their 2013 line-up is the worst kept secret of the paddock. That leaves Kamui on the hot spot, with everybody and their momma scrambling to Monisha Kaltenborn’s trailer with their resumes.

As said, if we believe the rumor mill, Hulkenberg is pretty much a shoe in for one of the seats, and the likes of Alguersuari and Buemi have also been linked to a drive with the Swiss team. In a way, it looks like the decision on Kamui has already been made, as even during the high of the Suzuka podium, you could sense the unease between Kamui and the team, the way they looked at him on  the podium to me was with eyes full of guilt, not joy for your driver’s first podium. In a way Hamilton’s move gave him some breathing space by at least opening up the second Sauber seat as well, but I’m afraid it will be to no avail for him, unless his Suzuka heroics inspired some Japanese sponsors to start pouring some money into F1 again.

Two other drivers who may have seen some chances to move back up the grid  as a result of Hamilton’s move were Kovalainen and Glock. Both veterans must be getting pretty miserable now that for the third year running they are still nowhere near the back of the midfield. Especially Heikki, who till recently always seemed upbeat and motivated seems to have fallen out a bit with Caterham. Glock on the other hand is buoyed by the Marussia upturn in performance, now regularly challenging the Caterhams despite the Marussia’s lack of KERS. While Kovalainen was tentatively linked to a 1 year move to Ferrari those hopes disappeared when Maranello made the silly move of retaining Massa for another year and it doesn’t look like he is seriously in the running for any other rides.

The only uncertainty then remains over the Force India seats and the rest of the backmarkers. If Hulk indeed gets to Sauber, either Bianchi, Alguersuari or Buemi will get the 2nd seat next to Di Resta. Bianchi has a chance by virtue of his test driver role, and the fact that the past 2 FI testers have gone on to have race seats the year after, however I do not think he has much of a shot. After all, he became FI test driver as part of a deal with Ferrari – not by the teams own choice as before with Hulk and Di Resta – and his failure to win the WSR despite all his experience over rookie Frijns surely also speaks against him (though granted, Frijns did punt him off at the title decider, I’d go for the rookie challenging the vet any day). If Bianchi wanted an F1 seat he needed to dominate WSR like Grosjean did last year in GP2. He failed to do so, so I’m afraid his star has faded too much now despite his illustrious early single seater career.

Alguersuari is an interesting prospect to rejoin the grid, as his role as Pirelli test driver this year will surely make him a valuable asset in a formula where tyre management is increasingly important.  Equally Buemi has an outsider shot at a drive, as his in depth knowledge of Red Bull as their simulator monkey will surely carry some very valuable pieces of information on the genius of Neweys’ designs.

All these men are thus fighting for the last Force India and Sauber seat, with all that remains available the crumbs with the backmarkers. Despite an impressive rookie season for Charles Pic, Marussia seem to be ready to continue their sad practice of dumping rookies after 1 year as they find an even richer rookie for the next, with Max Chilton all but confirmed to be alongside Glock for 2013. Pic had undeniably had the best rookie season compared to his predecessors, pissing off Glock in the process so it would be wholly undeserved for him to lose his seat to some other rich kid. Then again, Pic himself doesn’t exactly come from a poor household either so who is he to complain. After all, Pic was the bstard who pushed out my compatriot D’Ambrosio.

Even HRT have some sense of clarity and direction this year, with De La Rosa near certain to stay on, but Khartikeyan’s seat will likely be sold to the highest bidder, which could be anybody. Dani Clos may have a shot, considering his role as test driver and the team’s obsession to be more Spanish than King Juan Carlos, but I don’t know if he brings the Tata kind of money Narain can put on the table and cold hard cash is still more important to the team than flagpants.

That leaves us with the Caterham. Petrov’s future in F1 is looking grim as the sponsor money has apparently dried up. While performing more decent than I’d have imagined pre-season, Heikki has still spanked him pretty bad and he hasn’t done anything to warrant another team getting excited about him as a future prospect. Petrov without the money is unlikely to get another year in F1. As said earlier, Kovalainen seems pissed at the team but has no other option but to stay with them and hope for the breakthrough next year. Van Der Garde has been getting some Friday seat time so if he brings enough cash he may wind up next to Heikki for 2013. If he doesn’t, his single seater career is likely to be over. Either way, the 2nd Caterham seat will come down to money again – especially now that Marussia have done a major coup by snatching 10th in the WCC from them, which will surely cost Caterham millions of dollars unless they get very luck with attrition in one of the final races.

The next few months will draw the lines and determine who will fight it out next year. Either at the top or fighting to get out of Q1.

The 2012 season may not even be decided yet, but I’m already excited for 2013!

Apparently we have seen a dramatic upturn in Massa’s form since the summer break, that is what Ferrari would like us to believe anyway as they announce their cowardly decision to retain the Brazilian for what will no doubt be another fruitless year shining Alonsos’ shoes in 2013. Sure he’s scored more points in those few races since the break than he did in the first 10 races of the season (not too hard to do since he barely scored any), but was it really on his own merit?

In Spa Massa came off what probably was a long summer break pondering what the hell it was he was doing wrong with the car, with his teammate proving week in week out that the car was capable of doing so much more than what Felipe got out of it. It got to the point that Felipe and his engineer judged qualifying three tenths behind Alonso was a good performance. That may be the case if Massa were a rookie, but a man having spent the last seven years driving for Ferrari? It all gets down to what you classify as a ‘good’ performance. If your standards are that low, it’s hard not to deliver good performances.

His average qualifying position for the season is 10.44, failing to make q3 on nine occasions where his teammate only dropped out twice and is averaging 6th on the grid. The average qualifying gap between Massa and Alonso is almost half a second at  4.306s. He has outqualified Alonso just once…when the latter had a failure during Monza qualifying.

But I hear you, apparently we should immediately discard all the suck dripping from those woeful statistics because he allegedly had a serious upturn in performance since the summer break. We all know a few good races should evidently erase two years of abject failure – at least that’s what it sounds like hearing some reactions on Massa’s contract extension.

I’ll readily admit I’m the first to call for some proper Felipe bashing, but to me his first truly good performance on merit came last weekend in Korea however the claims are that he’s been putting in strong weekends since Spa? Let’s debunk that foolish idea shall we?

Belgian Grand Prix

Quali: 14th

Race:5th

In Belgium Massa finished 5th, till then his highest position of the year 30 seconds behind a dominant Jenson Button and behind an impressive Hulkenberg in 4th. On the face of it, one may argue that indeed, there is an upturn in performance there as 5th place – while disappointing for the man driving the other Ferrari – seemed to be very satisfying for Felipe. But did he really get that place on merit? Did circumstances not massively help him obtain that mediocre result? It’s hard to argue against the idea that had Grosjean not been a first lap nutcase, Romain, Lewis, Kamui, Pastor  and Alonso would have all been comfortable ahead of Massa come the end of the race? That would translate this ‘good’ fifth place into another 0 points haul for Felipe baby.

After all, he had only qualified in a measly 14th place, just edging out the Toro Rossos by two tenths in a 1.49.1 while Alonso’s q2 time was again over half a second faster at 1.48.5.

Spa a ‘good’ performance? I’d rather say another mediocre one at best, embellished by the stupidity of one and misfortune of others.

Italian Grand Prix

Quali: 3rd

Race:4th

On to the next one, the Scuderia’s home turf in Monza, where Felipe almost made his return to the podium, scoring a season best 4th and had his best qualifying of the year to boot, beating Alonso for the first time. However as I said earlier, he only beat Alonso because of the failure that hit Nando’s car late in q2. After all, Alonso’s Q2 lap was faster than Felipe’s q3 lap. A dejected Alonso even claimed to have lost an easy pole to to the failure, suggesting he considered it easy to take at least 2.5 extra tenths out of Felipe’s time to beat pole man Hamilton. A good performance by Massa indeed, but smelling like it got a bit embellished again by having the fastest car on the day and an unlucky teammate. In the end, he qualified 4 tenths ahead of Alonso’s wounded Ferrari.

Granted he raced quite well in the first half of the race, but when Fernando came charging through the field – again demonstrating the great pace of the Ferrari at Monza, the team understandably ordered him to move over. While one cannot imagine what goes on in the mind of a racing driver when being told to let someone by for Felipe I imagine it to be a tad different, as he is so desperate to hang on to this seat there is not even a question about his role as number two in Ferrari. Fact remains, that while I’d have expected him to hang onto Alonso, to show he did have the pace, Felipe kept falling back to finish 9 seconds behind, unable to match Nando’s pace again. In the end he netted a fourth place (would have been 5th if not for Button’s retirement). While on the surface of it a good weekend indeed, having the fastest car and a teammate out of your way, arguably Felipe should have gotten more out of it.

Monza a ‘good’ weekend – Yes, but nothing exceptional.

Singapore Grand Prix

Quali:13th

Race:8th

Moving on then to Singapore, where the articles of Massa’s upturn in performance started gaining traction despite having very little to show for it. The weekend started off like  so many others have in Massa’s 2012 season: with a q 2 exit. He qualified 13th with a 1.48.3 some 8 tenths off Alonso’s 1.47.5 in another pitiful performance. This put him in the danger zone during the tricky turn 1 when he got a puncture after a collision with Petrov, dropping him all the way down the order. Somehow, his drive to 8th was hailed in some quarters as a great performance, conveniently forgetting that without the safety car working in his favor, Felipe would have made little progress. By the time Khartikeyan hit the wall and brought out the safety car on lap 38, he had not managed to get further than 16th place, and within the space of two laps jumped from 16th to 10th. Then he managed to overtake just two more cars to finish 8th.

How Singapore can be hailed as a somehow good performance is a bit beyond me, but then again, I’m a Felipe basher.

Japanese Grand Prix

Quali: 11th

Race:2nd

On to the land of the rising sun, where Massa finally scored his podium after a 2 year draught (during which his teammate has scored a ridiculous string of podiums and wins) and came home 2nd in another race where Alonso was hit by misfortune, another Lotus sending him out on the first corner. Felipe’s qualifying was lackluster again, falling out in q2 again as he would line up 11th on the grid with a 1.31.8, his customary half a second behind Alonso’s Q2 time of 1.31.8.

His race pace was good, but he was again – much like in Spa – gifted race position rather than that he had to pull of some great driving to get where he ended up. The first lap shenanigans with Grosjean, Webber, Rosberg and Alonso playing into his hands beautifully as the dice fell his way and he emerged in fourth as they ran up to the esses. Button and Kobayashi then hit traffic after their first stops which allowed Massa to jump them in the pits, to cruise home fairly comfortably to 2nd place. The stats will show a great weekend, but looking at what actually happened, Massa’s performance was massively helped by circumstances, not his own merit.

Korean Grand Prix:

Quali: 6th

Race:4th

Finally we get to last weeks’ Grand Prix in Korea where even I have a hard time to find fault. His qualifying was decent  compared to his other performances this year making it to q3 with a sixth place and a 1.37.8, ‘only’ three tenths behind Alonso’s 1.37.5.  However, looking a bit deeper the gap to his teammate was still unacceptably large, and he was the slowest of the drivers in top cars (bar Button who dropped out of q1 due to the yellow flags). The Korean race is where to me, we saw a great drive from Felipe for the first time this year. He had great pace throughout, was smart and aggressive off the starty but was still stuck behind Hamilton until Lewis hit problems with his car. Near the end of the race it became clear that for the first time in living memory, Felipe actually had better pace than Alonso, and was told to hold off by the team, without which he may have been able to catch Webber. Korea: mediocre quail, good race.

Let’s add all that up shall we and then I’ll leave it to you to decide whether the claimed upturn in performance has really been enough to warrant a new contract.

Qualifying:

-          Massa 1 – Alonso 4

-          Eliminated in q2 3/5

-          Average gap to Alonso: 3.4s

-          Average starting position: 9.4

 

Race:

-          Massa  2 – Alonso 3

-          Average finishing position: 4.6

His qualifying performance is barely improved compared to the season overall, and while he has seen an improvement in finishing positions, except for Korea and Monza he was helped a great deal by other drivers misfortune and the Singapore Safety car. If Massa were a rookie the statistics of this year would have led him to be butchered. The statistics of the past five races are not much to write home about either. Yet because Alonso does not tolerate a strong driver next to him, because Ferrari is comfortable squandering their chances in the WCC, beacuse Kubica damned near killed himself in a rally car and because frankly, Webber just did not want the job, Massa will still be in a Ferrari seat next year…but  let’s not fool ourselves thinking it was because of his ‘good’ performances of late.

Predictions for the 2012 Japanese Grand Prix – Suzuka

Posted: October 5, 2012 by Valentin Khorounzhiy in 2012 Predictions

Hello, chaps, me again with the predictions post as both of the site’s founders were sadly unavailable… actually, no, I just beat them to it. This time it’s Suzuka in what sounds like sunny Japan, first Grand Prix after the massive amount of announcements over the previous week – Hamilton to Mercedes, Perez to McLaren, Schumacher to retire – you know it.

FP1 and FP2 have outlined mostly trends that seemed fairly predictable pre-weekend but also some peculiar ones. It seems fairly obvious that the main tossup in the “quickest car” category will be between McLaren and Red Bull. Button was quickest in FP1 ahead of Lewis while, in FP2, it was Mark who shined… also ahead of Lewis.

On the other side of the spectrum, Lotus and Ferrari looked okay-ish, with their usual faster drivers seemingly mixing it up with the leaders in FP2. However, both might have to expect a difficult weekend ahead of them – Ferrari is still going through the “windtunnel crisis” while Lotus is still reluctant to run the DDRS, probably because it doesn’t seem to work particularly well. Kimi’s no-run in FP2 after his KERS gave out is also more than a bit worrying.

Mercedes is looking decent even though the entirety of FP2 has pretty much gone to waste with Schumi binning his car and Rosberg doing a minimal amount of laps. Sauber, despite the hype, is seemingly nowhere, while Force India are looking pretty confident. With Williams, it seems really hard to tell, while the remaining four teams seem to be occupying their usual positions.

Got a bit distracted there with the massive amount of rumours going on on Twitter. I have a feeling those might amount to something even before I post this. :D

Onto the predictions. In qualifying, I fully expect there to be an accident of sorts, as FP sessions so far have been… eventful. Hopefully I am proven wrong.

Q3 should be a fun one, as lots of cars appear competitive. I personally expect to see both McLaren drivers, both Red Bull drivers, both Mercedes drivers, Alonso, Romain, Pastor and Nico to make it, but you never know. Your guess is obviously as good as mine.
For pole, I’d imagine it’s going to be Webber as this seems to be the track that suits him relatively well. Lewis alongside him on front row with, say, Romain in third. The three after that I’d expect to be spread out between Alonso, Vettel and Button. Shame about Jenson’s five-grid drop then.

Sources on Twitter start overwhelmingly suggesting that Hulkenberg will go to Ferrari and Alguersuari will go to Force India. I know a couple of people who will be overjoyed with that. Shame, really, I got a bit used to the idea of seeing Massa race in F1 for another year.

At this point, it is a touch hard to write up approximate expectations for the race, as team tactics are sure to come into play. If I expect Mark to outqualify Seb (and I do), then I might have to account for the fact that they will either ask him to move aside or favour Seb with strategy. Still, if Mark does get on pole, I don’t think he’s likely to lose that in the first lap of the race and, well, spoilers, I have him down as the winner of the race. In second, Grosjean, cause why not – the car seems reasonably faster than in Singapore and maybe Lotus will finally have at least part of a decent weekend. In third, Seb would mirror his finish last year that secured him the title.

Cucumber of the race – honestly don’t know. Something in my mind suggests it might be Paul di Resta – he didn’t exactly have the best week in terms of contracts and opportunities and already crashed in practice. Hopefully not.

Qualifying: 1. Webber 2. Hamilton 3. Grosjean

Race: 1. Webber 2. Grosjean 3. Vettel